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[Tickle]

Basically the conclusion of both yourself and Tickle is this is a collector's car and demand will outpace supply throughout its life cycle. As much as I'm being chastised for 'predicting the future' which is the same used market model for 99% of the vehicles out there and the FK8, that's exactly what you both are doing. This car will somehow outpace the FK8 price history for whatever reasons you want to give... It's just interesting that both your predictions are for the 1% chance the car is a true collector's car even though today in a market full of cash the car isn't easily selling out at that $10k markup and is barely getting $5k over MSRP in the flipping market. This, per your predictions, will be maintained even once supply hits 5000+ units in the wild, with interest rates going up and a market with less overall money with a likely recession. It's one of those... sure, it can happen, but is it likely? Probably not.

Hahaha... You're wild.

I only asked you one question... I just wanted to know how the preowned market impacted the new car market directly.

You then went on this... path of not only not backing what you say but proving the absolute opposite.

Honestly, I wish I never asked... lol

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[TimeRacer]

Hahaha... You're wild.

I only asked you one question... I just wanted to know how the preowned market impacted the new car market directly.

You then went on this... path of not only not backing what you say but proving the absolute opposite.

Honestly, I wish I never asked... lol

Truthfully I hope this is feigned ignorance. As you don't read an explanation for too many words and ignore the FK8 first 3 years example. Having pre-owned cars available means new cars carry less of a premium - it isn't difficult. FK8 new pricing only dropped for the first 3 years. Supply and demand is also why new and used FK8 prices skyrocketed in late 2020 and 2021 when Honda stated no immediate successor was coming [future supply in jeopardy]. So you have theory and practical application and example for a car history we all know quite well. I'm sorry this is so "wild" for you.

 

[TypeRD]

We’re only talking supply and demand here and total supply. No one is talking about collectibility, though scarcity tends to go hand in hand. Too much conjecture and tangents happening.

FL5 production numbers will not reach FK8 production numbers is very likely true. Here’s why : You understand the way production works, right? In an overly simplified manner (not being snarky) : X production facility can churn out only X number of vehicles over X number of months. That’s the very top level of how manufacturing facilities operate and this is how they can promise their dealers X number of vehicles in X amount of time. OK. So…while it is technically possible they could somehow produce more CTR’s than they’ve committed to, it isn’t quick nor easy when other production cells (within the plant) are committed to building other important vehicles. Know what I mean? The CTR is maybe the most important car to us, but from a production and $ perspective, it’s just one of several important vehicles that they need to produce and ship to dealers. Again, it is possible, but very highly improbable, that Honda would shift production away from other vehicles to make more CTR’s. That they shut down their biggest vehicle production plant in Japan last December only further solidifies this inflexibility and solidifies the improbability of Honda exceeding CTR commitments by any considerable amount.

I agree, comparing production between Toyota and Honda is moot, except that Toyota has the ability to churn out more cars. More cars drives prices down. I agree with that. Where I think you’re getting things twisted is that (not trying to put words in anyone’s mouth) is that you believe FL5 production will reach FK8 production. I don’t know the numbers, but I imagine FK8 productIon, month over month, is probably somewhere in the ballpark of GRC numbers month over month. That’s the thing that I, and nobody here, believes will ever be the case with the FL5. Possible? Yes. Probable? No.

We can all agree there’s a lot of speculation here. At the end of the day, more cars will become available. We know that. Whether enough will be available (new and lightly used) to drive prices down to MSRP, we’ll have to wait and see. In the meantime, folks who REALLY want one should be able to get one at a reasonable ADM of ~$5k or less if they simply wait for the next waves of cars to come. Agree, that is a reasonable theory. Go look at lightly used FK8 prices online today and let us know your thoughts on that. It doesn’t entirely jive with classic economic theories of supply vs demand…which points again to the crazy world we live in now vs pre-pandemic.

 

[Tickle]

Truthfully I hope this is feigned ignorance. As you don't read an explanation for too many words and ignore the FK8 first 3 years example. Having pre-owned cars available means new cars carry less of a premium - it isn't difficult. FK8 new pricing only dropped for the first 2.5 years. It's also why new and used FK8 prices skyrocketed in late 2020 and 2021 when Honda stated no immediate successor was coming. So you have theory and practical application and example for a car history we all know quite well. I'm sorry if that's not enough for you.

I can't believe you think Honda mentioning whatever you say they said had more of an impact on the value of the FK8 than the inability to produce it fast enough...



I don't care if it was a Chevy Equinox. When new vehicles couldn't be produced fast enough. Preowned ones went up in value. INCLUDING the FK8. So if you want to talk about three years just know it lines right up with 2020.

Used cars don't dictate new car values. Come on... I'm done.

 

[TimeRacer]

I can't believe you think Honda mentioning whatever you say they said had more of an impact on the value of the FK8 than the inability to produce it fast enough...



I don't care if it was a Chevy Equinox. When new vehicles couldn't be produced fast enough. Preowned ones went up in value. INCLUDING the FK8. So if you want to talk about three years just know it lines right up with 2020.

Used cars don't dictate new car values. Come on... I'm done.

I have to laugh as even per your own example, a short supply used market (for ALL vehicles in 2022) for your Chevy Equinox example, allows new pricing to be marked up even higher. Example of let's say there's 50 Equinox's in every state under 2 years old used and there's only 2 new ones in every state. You think people are paying 30% over MSRP for the new ones regularly? Generally not. It's funny - you're trying to argue the chicken and the egg paradox, which one causes what... where I'm simply stating they're there and forever tied to one another. To go this far into the weeds about it... shows exactly why you shouldn't bother helping people that are so lost in their own head over their own arguments.

Used being readily available means less premium on new that's entirely what I've been saying. But you do your own thing.

 

[addakatlahemanth]

congrats! and i did say that it could be possible to get low/no ADM if you have an established relationship with a dealer or are lucky. but a lot of the people posting on here have said (see their stories) that their existing relationship didn't work out over the allure of extra money to be made (their agreements were cancelled)... while others (like myself) did not have an existing relationship with a honda dealer. so, while i am thrilled for you that you got such a great deal... what you didn't explain was what you did or what others might do to replicate that. bragging is fine... but then help others to get their hands on a car like this.

Hi sure. So I’m based off Pittsburgh . I never targeted big town dealerships as I knew markups would be crazy. Called every small town dealerships in 200 miles, radius, put my name on list in the month of November 2022. One of them called on Jan 8th they had for 3k over. And other was at MSRP but it was black I passed on it. Put a deposit on 3k over car. After that atleast 4 other dealerships called for 5-7 k over all of them 3rd wave cars as I was first in the list. I don’t have a trade just fyi. I didn’t have any relationships with any dealerships.
What ever deals I passed I helped folks I know to get the type R

One Of the forum member local to my area wanted type R I found a instock unit in upstate NY they wanted 10k finally we negotiated to 7k with accessories worth 500$ included.

My advice find dealers in small towns.

 

[TimeRacer]

We’re only talking supply and demand here and total supply. No one is talking about collectibility, though scarcity tends to go hand in hand. Too much conjecture and tangents happening.

So collectability is PART of the supply/demand equation and likely the only thing that really sustains a car to increase in price over MSRP over time. 99% of cars are depreciating assets.

FL5 production numbers will not reach FK8 production numbers is very likely true. Here’s why : You understand the way production works, right? In an overly simplified manner (not being snarky) : X production facility can churn out only X number of vehicles over X number of months.

Snipping a ton of this since you're running under the following assumptions. 1) Production is factory and not supply limited 2) It's not global production but every single region only gets a specific number of cars and no reallocation is possible 3) Supply chain won't improve or efficiencies are never found during production. 4) Bunch of other stuff that actually affects production but you're writing in stone what they can produce now and send to the US today is the HIGHEST it will be through the likely 4 year life cycle. 5) The CTR is the most important vehicle for the US market (it's not by a long shot)

If that's what you want to believe and operate on... cool. It's entirely speculative but w/e I'm not here to change your mind and this isn't the thread to try.

Where I think you’re getting things twisted is that (not trying to put words in anyone’s mouth) is that you believe FL5 production will reach FK8 production. I don’t know the numbers, but I imagine FK8 productIon, month over month, is probably somewhere in the ballpark of GRC numbers month over month. That’s the thing that I, and nobody here, believes will ever be the case with the FL5. Possible? Yes. Probable? No.

Again you're hung up on FK8 production numbers. Look at the market for the FL5 TODAY. $5k-$10k ADM and we're not even through pent up demand with less than 400 copies on the road today. Your assertion is even once we hit 5000+ copies the demand will still sustain the $10k ADM. I'm simply stating it's unlikely using 99% (FK8 included) of the cars EVER produced as an example. What you're claiming isn't the norm for the car market nor is it the norm for a market heading into a recession. Again I'm not trying to change your mind about it - just understand what you're asserting.

Go look at lightly used FK8 prices online today and let us know your thoughts on that. It doesn’t entirely jive with classic economic theories…which points again to the crazy world we live in now vs pre-pandemic.

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/Honda-Civic-Type-R-d2568

FK8 Civic Type R pricing today vs 6 months ago the prices have only went down. The entire used market has went down from the peak used market of 2022. One can simply google "used cars selling above MSRP" and find a littany of examples, simply because of the market environment, unless you want to argue on behalf of all of those vehicles as well for being above MSRP used (rhetorical - don't argue it but just showing the CTR is simply caught up in the same market). On Autotrader there's 224 FK8's for sale which is way up from 6 months ago. Even the Limited editions are $10k over MSRP for sub 10k miles and haven't sold for months. Prices are still high, but the used market is still high on a whole confirmed by Cox, BlackBook, CarEdge, CarGurus or whatever you want to use. EVERY market measurement metric (if you care about that kind of thing) points toward the slowing of car sales but again that interferes with your view which is fine as again this isn't the place to change it.

The ridiculousness of this whole thing is my initial point still holds true. If you don't want to pay transport fees, storage fees, current first adopter premium... don't buy it or shop for it now. It's still more likely, even with your view, to be able to get the car easier and cheaper in 6+ months than it is right now. I really have no idea why this is such a crazy idea and if you want to debate the point make another thread and tag me in it as this already has gone on way too long here as this is beyond silly imo as you're trying to argue the 1% probability the car will remain at the launch markup as something written in stone and nothing I say or data I bring in will change that as I'm seeing people are here more to argue than to have a genuine conversation of probable availability over time.

 

[AspecR]

For me I'd rather get the Integra Type S.

I agree, unless you plan to tuck one away for 30 years as an investment, having 2 would be kinda pointless. Get the ITS as the 2nd option

 

[AspecR]

Y’all postin some long ass responses lol, definitely ain’t readin all of that

 

[POPNTEC]

haha! yes, this was the focus of one of my posts as well. while i'm definitely not encouraging harrassing any dealer, i visited my local dealerships in person multiple times. they called me when the cars came in... they called me when they dropped the prices. they knew i wanted one, and altho i wasn't even on their radar when i first visited, they got to know me and they knew i was serious enough to make the trip over there each time.

again, i really like my sales rep (who stuck to his commitment), but as i said, they already have a deposit on their next car without any VIN or ETA even.

those of you who have had the dealers crap out on you... did you have a written agreement that the car was yours, or just a deposit to show you were serious?

since deposits are a common thing and are very often negated/returned, is there a more reliable method/form of paperwork that would lock in a car/place in line without a vin number?

I just say hound the shit out of them into submission!

 

[CTRifecta]

 

[mbaapk]

There’s a lot of variables here and I think your FOMO might be leading you down the wrong path.
Let’s start at base, all dealers are working off one another, so if dealer A got a 10-15k ADM, in most instances dealer B is running with that number because why not line the pockets? Now are there unicorn MSRP deals out there yes, are there 3k and 5k deals out there yes, are some of the 10-15k ones coming down, yes but 80% of people interested in the FL5 are max willing to pay 5k ADM and not a penny over. Which means any dealer offering MSRP or 3-5k of course the lists are super deep and no right minded dealer is gonna deal with the headache of tying up 10k in deposits knowing they might not even be able to fill 10 orders in this cars run. Which brings me to the next point, because there is STILL no official numbers and ONLY speculation on how many will be made for the US. Dealers as well as us in the market are working on hearsay. This is still a very much in the dark situation for everyone. Next up. Given all these things working against each other, some dealers are wising up that there are a handful of people out there that have severe FOMO on this car so if they get a call and say they are a 5k adm and the person offers a 7.5k bid. This might be where you are seeing refunded deposits or “first come first served” situations. Same way dealers know people
Want it bad and will do anything to get it, so they have no officially locked in deal or trust if a guy on the waitlist that has a 1k deposit down wants it earlier and finds a separate deal, so now they gotta refund a deposit, etc, it’s a lot of work. First come first served allows for real buyers to present themselves at the dealer and lock in the deal or start a bid war. I have called over 100 Honda dealerships across the US and I’m in Chicago. I’ve heard every trope on this site repeated by the dealers. They admit to almost all of this. So my final advice would be, keep your eyes peeled for the next wave of cars and start making calls, while you’re waiting for that go through the East coast deliveries thread on here and look for ASPECR posts regarding incoming cars from the past. Call those dealers that already got one cuz the cycle is about to repeat itself. First wave dealers are about to get the 4th wave cars and then 2nd wave gets 5th. Etc. I hope this helps a bit. I don’t think anyone is trying to be fully disrespectful by not offering you up a silver platter of dealer names with the best deals, but please keep in mind some have been working on locking down their deals since the car was announced or since before MSRP was even set in stone. And same way you have had a deal pulled on you, no one wants that to happen to them. As a guy who has been calling and calling and calling, bashing my head into my keyboard having to say the same song and dance. You’ll get your 5k deal in the next three months. Just remain diligent. If you can’t get this done till next year, mute this site and wait. Don’t allow “what ifs” to drive you to obsession. I guarantee you will get one and get one when you’re ready.

Wayyy too long for me to read…

 

[Trilly_Loomis]

Wayyy too long for me to read…

Hopefully it’s not too long for @I used to vtec to read cuz it was meant for him and it’s long but informative. I feel like I didn’t mention used car prices, the GR Corolla or Elantra N, PPF, like there wasn’t something to argue so most people won’t even glance ? everyone on here just likes to bicker I swear. RIP.

 

[TypeRD]

I’m done @TimeRacer . I’ve not made any of these “assertions” you state. Case in point, I never said the CTR was the most important vehicle (end sentence). You know how sentences work, right? Re-read what I said and maybe you will comprehend more than short phrases and singular words within the context I provided. I also never said $10k ADM will sustain indefinitely. Where did I say this? Show me. Yeah. Doesn’t exist because I never said it, nor even hinted at it. Oh here’s something else…I never said it wasn’t possible production could pick up. I said it isn’t PROBABLE to hit FK8 numbers. Do you know the difference between these words “possible” and “probable?” I guess not as I’ve used them a few times and you still don’t seem to register their meaning. I bring up the FK8 production and used prices, because it is relevant historically and a good gauge that folks here are familiar with, including the context of when they were built vs today. Like @Tickle said, you’re taking snippets of what I (and others) ACTUALLY SAID and spinning them to fit your weak, non-fact/non-reality, based narrative. You must work for a major US news network or are simply ChatGPT. It’s 100% clear a logical discussion cannot be had here. Ignoring you now….and….Byeeeee

 

[Clark_Kent]

I’m done @TimeRacer . I’ve not made any of these “assertions” you state. Case in point, I never said the CTR was the most important vehicle (end sentence). You know how sentences work, right? Re-read what I said and maybe you will comprehend more than short phrases and singular words within the context I provided. I also never said $10k ADM will sustain indefinitely. Where did I say this? Show me. Yeah. Doesn’t exist because I never said it, nor even hinted at it. Oh here’s something else…I never said it wasn’t possible production could pick up. I said it isn’t PROBABLE to hit FK8 numbers. Do you know the difference between these words “possible” and “probable?” I guess not as I’ve used them a few times and you still don’t seem to register their meaning. I bring up the FK8 production and used prices, because it is relevant historically and a good gauge that folks here are familiar with, including the context of when they were built vs today. Like @Tickle said, you’re taking snippets of what I (and others) ACTUALLY SAID and spinning them to fit your weak, non-fact/non-reality, based narrative. You must work for a major US news network or are simply ChatGPT. It’s 100% clear a logical discussion cannot be had here. Ignoring you now….and….Byeeeee

Why engage for so long? Don't feed the trolls.

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