2023 Civic Type R Waitlist / Deposit / Reservations List - Check in here!

[Tickle]

No lol I just want red ?

Lol, Commie...

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[Trilly_Loomis]

There’s a lot of variables here and I think your FOMO might be leading you down the wrong path.
Let’s start at base, all dealers are working off one another, so if dealer A got a 10-15k ADM, in most instances dealer B is running with that number because why not line the pockets? Now are there unicorn MSRP deals out there yes, are there 3k and 5k deals out there yes, are some of the 10-15k ones coming down, yes but 80% of people interested in the FL5 are max willing to pay 5k ADM and not a penny over. Which means any dealer offering MSRP or 3-5k of course the lists are super deep and no right minded dealer is gonna deal with the headache of tying up 10k in deposits knowing they might not even be able to fill 10 orders in this cars run. Which brings me to the next point, because there is STILL no official numbers and ONLY speculation on how many will be made for the US. Dealers as well as us in the market are working on hearsay. This is still a very much in the dark situation for everyone. Next up. Given all these things working against each other, some dealers are wising up that there are a handful of people out there that have severe FOMO on this car so if they get a call and say they are a 5k adm and the person offers a 7.5k bid. This might be where you are seeing refunded deposits or “first come first served” situations. Same way dealers know people
Want it bad and will do anything to get it, so they have no officially locked in deal or trust if a guy on the waitlist that has a 1k deposit down wants it earlier and finds a separate deal, so now they gotta refund a deposit, etc, it’s a lot of work. First come first served allows for real buyers to present themselves at the dealer and lock in the deal or start a bid war. I have called over 100 Honda dealerships across the US and I’m in Chicago. I’ve heard every trope on this site repeated by the dealers. They admit to almost all of this. So my final advice would be, keep your eyes peeled for the next wave of cars and start making calls, while you’re waiting for that go through the East coast deliveries thread on here and look for ASPECR posts regarding incoming cars from the past. Call those dealers that already got one cuz the cycle is about to repeat itself. First wave dealers are about to get the 4th wave cars and then 2nd wave gets 5th. Etc. I hope this helps a bit. I don’t think anyone is trying to be fully disrespectful by not offering you up a silver platter of dealer names with the best deals, but please keep in mind some have been working on locking down their deals since the car was announced or since before MSRP was even set in stone. And same way you have had a deal pulled on you, no one wants that to happen to them. As a guy who has been calling and calling and calling, bashing my head into my keyboard having to say the same song and dance. You’ll get your 5k deal in the next three months. Just remain diligent. If you can’t get this done till next year, mute this site and wait. Don’t allow “what ifs” to drive you to obsession. I guarantee you will get one and get one when you’re ready.

 

[Rhorn]

Anyone here planning on purchasing multiple FL5s or am I the only crazy one? I got CW. Still want red. First world problems.

For me I'd rather get the Integra Type S.

 

[VPMotors]

Why stop there? Collect all the colors!

Pokémon! Gotta catch 'em all!

 

[1971Camaro]

I paid 3k ADM on my car. With accessories worth 500 included in it

congrats! and i did say that it could be possible to get low/no ADM if you have an established relationship with a dealer or are lucky. but a lot of the people posting on here have said (see their stories) that their existing relationship didn't work out over the allure of extra money to be made (their agreements were cancelled)... while others (like myself) did not have an existing relationship with the honda dealer where i bought it. so, while i am thrilled for you that you got such a great deal... what you didn't explain was what you did or what others might do to replicate that. bragging is fine... but then help others to get their hands on a car like this.

 

[1971Camaro]

I hounded the shit out of my dealership so bad that they sold me the car to shut me up and they still tried to sell it to someone else first.

haha! yes, this was the focus of one of my posts as well. while i'm definitely not encouraging harrassing any dealer, i visited my local dealerships in person multiple times. they called me when the cars came in... they called me when they dropped the prices. they knew i wanted one, and altho i wasn't even on their radar when i first visited, they got to know me and they knew i was serious enough to make the trip over there each time.

again, i really like my sales rep (who stuck to his commitment), but as i said, they already have a deposit on their next car without any VIN or ETA even.

those of you who have had the dealers crap out on you... did you have a written agreement that the car was yours, or just a deposit to show you were serious?

since deposits are a common thing and are very often negated/returned, is there a more reliable method/form of paperwork that would lock in a car/place in line without a vin number?

 

[TimeRacer]

Can you provide an example of a scenario like this that one could reference or a credible source that backs this logic?

The history of the FK8 prior to Honda announcing there will be no immediate next generation, putting the next generation in limbo which immediately began to spike prices if it was the last. Before the announcement one could hunt and pick up the FK8 at MSRP. Or just like now that the FL5 is rolling out, FK8 prices are coming DOWN across the board. Or literally ANY hyped car that's coming back after a hiatus but still has decent production levels so we're not talking 911 GT3's and such where demand is modeled to always outpace total supply used or not. Initial price is always a spike to satisfy the pent up demand, we're not even 6mo into the FL5 rollout. Heck, even the GR Corolla rollout, which is just faster than the CTR rollout has the markups below $5k already with some dealerships already getting 3 cars. It's simple supply and demand. There's plenty of examples of this happening right in front of you if you want to look - I'm just confused as to why it's such a contention point.

 

[Tickle]

The history of the FK8 prior to Honda announcing there will be no immediate next generation, putting the next generation in limbo which immediately began to spike prices if it was the last. Before the announcement one could hunt and pick up the FK8 at MSRP. Or just like now that the FL5 is rolling out, FK8 prices are coming DOWN across the board. Or literally ANY hyped car that's coming back after a hiatus but still has decent production levels so we're not talking 911 GT3's and such where demand is modeled to always outpace total supply used or not. Initial price is always a spike to satisfy the pent up demand, we're not even 6mo into the FL5 rollout. Heck, even the GR Corolla rollout, which is just faster than the CTR rollout has the markups below $5k already with some dealerships already getting 3 cars. It's simple supply and demand. There's plenty of examples of this happening right in front of you if you want to look - I'm just confused as to why it's such a contention point.

Seems to me that is the new car impacting the pre-owned market.

I was waiting for you to explain to me how the pre-owned market helps set the new. I didn't understand your logic. Which is why I asked...

 

[TimeRacer]

Seems to me that is the new car impacting the pre-owned market.

I was waiting for you to explain to me how the pre-owned market helps set the new. I didn't understand your logic. Which is why I asked...

If there's a healthy pre-owned market, new prices are very unlikely to be marked up with ridiculous ADM's unless the dealers have no intention of turning over the car. Think of any high hype car from the past pre-pandemic 10 years and you're welcome to go back and look at the pricing histories. But now in the case of the FL5 where there's virtually no used market and we're not even at 1 car per dealership yet, high ADM's are the norm and will be until more supply satisfies pent up demand. With the 2 year horizon of the person I was responding to, just like the FK8, lower overall pricing once pent up demand flushes through the system and used availability will allow better deals to be had. Used prices like the 911 GT3 RS which can be over 50+% over MSRP pricing... guess what, dealers are charging 100+% or more over MSRP because allocations are so scarce and demand continues to outpace supply intentionally by Porsche - that's not the case with the CTR in general. We've already seen the flipping of new FL5's isn't that robust for these cars in the first place so (cars and bids among other attempts) why is the belief the car will be closer to 911 GT3 price trends rather than the FK8?

 

[Tickle]

That is a lot of words... I just wanted an example of the preowned market impacting the new.

 

[TimeRacer]

That is a lot of words... I just wanted an example of the preowned market impacting the new.

Explanations are too much? Sure... TL : DR - FK8 price history for the first 3 years.

 

[TypeRD]

FL5 production numbers will not reach FK8 production numbers, so it’s not an apples to apples comparison, particularly when comparing the world we live in now vs the pre-pandemic world. It’s just not. However, it’s not an extreme case, like the Porsche GT3 example either. But I get what you’re saying ; Prices “should” (theoretically) level out as more cars become available. That makes sense. Again, in the world we live in today (which I can see easily continuing into 2025, unfortunately), I don’t think there will be a shortage of buyers who will pay extra for a brand new FL5 (even when given the option to pay MSRP or a little less for a used example). $10k extra? No. Up to ~$5k, sure. Has anyone looked at what low milage (less than 20k miles) FK8’s are going for? It’s a rhetorical question. They’re listing, and certainly some are selling, for more than MSRP even still! I think this points to the fact that demand is still out pacing supply for new and lightly used CTR’s. I don’t see this changing. Why? Because, unless a miracle happens, FL5 production numbers will not reach the same production numbers as the FK8. And even if they did, again, look at the prices that lightly used FK8’s are selling for. More cars will be available over time, sure. But in the grand scheme there won’t be a lot out there to choose from. Note the GRC example isn’t really relevant either. Toyota has a dedicated GR plant that has the ability to ramp up production amongst various GR vehicles as needed. They saw demand going up for the GRC, they were able to shift to producing more of them without a whole lot of complexity…which is why one might see 2-3 GRC’s at a Toyota dealer. Honda, on the other hand, does not currently have the luxury of production flexibility for the FL5. In fact, they shut down their biggest plant in Japan late last year to ready it for electric vehicle production. They can’t shift things around to make more FL5’s than they’ve already committed to. So, what I’m getting at is that the whole picture needs to be considered, not just simple supply and demand, but also total projected supply.

 

[Tickle]

Explanations are too much? Sure... TL : DR - FK8 price history for the first 3 years.

Heh... Your explanation is too much. To be honest you are fighting an uphill battle.

Supply shortages and logistic issues impacted the FK8s production. New impacts the preowned, not the other way around.

You can't predict the future.

 

[TimeRacer]

FL5 production numbers will not reach FK8 production numbers, so it’s not an apples to apples comparison, particularly when comparing the world we live in now vs the pre-pandemic world. It’s just not. However, it’s not an extreme case, like the Porsche GT3 example either. But I get what you’re saying ; Prices “should” (theoretically) level out as more cars become available. That makes sense. Again, in the world we live in today (which I can see easily continuing into 2025, unfortunately), I don’t think there will be a shortage of buyers who will pay extra for a brand new FL5 (even when given the option to pay MSRP or a little less for a used example). $10k extra? No. Up to ~$5k, sure. Has anyone looked at what low milage (less than 20k miles) FK8’s are going for? It’s a rhetorical question. They’re listing, and certainly some are selling, for more than MSRP even still! I think this points to the fact that demand is still out pacing supply for new and lightly used CTR’s. I don’t see this changing. Why? Because, unless a miracle happens, FL5 production numbers will not reach the same production numbers as the FK8. And even if they did, again, look at the prices that lightly used FK8’s are selling for. More cars will be available over time, sure. But in the grand scheme there won’t be a lot out there to choose from. Note the GRC example isn’t really relevant either. Toyota has a dedicated GR plant that has the ability to ramp up production amongst various GR vehicles as needed. They saw demand going up for the GRC, they were able to shift to producing more of them without a whole lot of complexity…which is why one might see 2-3 GRC’s at a Toyota dealer. Honda, on the other hand, does not currently have the luxury of production flexibility for the FL5. In fact, they shut down their biggest plant in Japan late last year to ready it for electric vehicle production. They can’t shift things around to make more FL5’s than they’ve already committed to. So, what I’m getting at is that the whole picture needs to be considered, not just simple supply and demand, but also total projected supply.

Let's break this down a bit.

1) "FL5 production numbers will not reach FK8 production numbers"
Who knows really. We're literally within the first 4-5 months of sale and we're already writing the future production in stone.

2) "in the world we live in today (which I can see easily continuing into 2025, unfortunately), I don’t think there will be a shortage of buyers who will pay extra for a brand new FL5"
It's all speculation and again we've got similar cars within the market (Elantra N, Golf R, GR Corolla, Integra Type-S, etc) and cars just up market (GR Supra, Z, m240i/M2, RS3, etc) available so it's not like there aren't financial alternatives that fulfill similar roles. We also get to see the price histories of all of those cars, all of them have ADM's coming DOWN. Essentially you're labeling the CTR as a collector's car.

3) "Note the GRC example isn’t really relevant either. Toyota has a dedicated GR plant that has the ability to ramp up production amongst various GR vehicles as needed."
Motomachi is not a dedicated plant for GR Vehicles, nor is it dedicated to the GR Corolla. GR has a small sub section within it but the point of the GR Corolla comparison is with a few dealers getting their 3rd vehicle, pricing is already dropped below $5k ADM's meaning supply is quickly catching up to demand reflecting the overall demand for this market segment, which is quite niche. Not about trying to compare Honda vs Toyota manufacturing capability, especially as currently Honda is focusing upon home market supply and supply chain is only going to improve from this point forward.

Basically the conclusion of both yourself and Tickle is this is a collector's car and demand will outpace supply throughout its life cycle. As much as I'm being chastised for 'predicting the future' which is the same used market model for 99% of the vehicles out there including the FK8, that's exactly what you both are doing. This car will somehow outpace the FK8 price history for whatever reasons you want to give... It's just interesting that both your predictions are for the 1% chance the car is a true collector's car even though today in a market full of cash the car isn't easily selling out at that $10k markup and is barely getting $5k over MSRP in the flipping market. This, per your predictions, will be maintained or increase even once supply hits 5000+ units in the wild, with interest rates going up and a market with less overall money with a likely recession. It's one of those... sure, it can happen, but is it likely? Probably not.

If we were to choose a vehicle pricing model then - what is the FL5 in your minds? FK8 had 20 years of Type-R history and pent up demand to capitalize on and you're saying the FL5 is going to do even better than that overall.

 

[1971Camaro]

FL5 production numbers will not reach FK8 production numbers, so it’s not an apples to apples comparison, particularly when comparing the world we live in now vs the pre-pandemic world. It’s just not. However, it’s not an extreme case, like the Porsche GT3 example either. But I get what you’re saying ; Prices “should” (theoretically) level out as more cars become available. That makes sense. Again, in the world we live in today (which I can see easily continuing into 2025, unfortunately), I don’t think there will be a shortage of buyers who will pay extra for a brand new FL5 (even when given the option to pay MSRP or a little less for a used example). $10k extra? No. Up to ~$5k, sure. Has anyone looked at what low milage (less than 20k miles) FK8’s are going for? It’s a rhetorical question. They’re listing, and certainly some are selling, for more than MSRP even still! I think this points to the fact that demand is still out pacing supply for new and lightly used CTR’s. I don’t see this changing. Why? Because, unless a miracle happens, FL5 production numbers will not reach the same production numbers as the FK8. And even if they did, again, look at the prices that lightly used FK8’s are selling for. More cars will be available over time, sure. But in the grand scheme there won’t be a lot out there to choose from. Note the GRC example isn’t really relevant either. Toyota has a dedicated GR plant that has the ability to ramp up production amongst various GR vehicles as needed. They saw demand going up for the GRC, they were able to shift to producing more of them without a whole lot of complexity…which is why one might see 2-3 GRC’s at a Toyota dealer. Honda, on the other hand, does not currently have the luxury of production flexibility for the FL5. In fact, they shut down their biggest plant in Japan late last year to ready it for electric vehicle production. They can’t shift things around to make more FL5’s than they’ve already committed to. So, what I’m getting at is that the whole picture needs to be considered, not just simple supply and demand, but also total projected supply.

all valid... but you are still forgetting that the CTR is one of the coolest cars being promoted in 2023, and not all buyers are people who necessarily WANT a hot hatch -- they just want the coolest car. Those kind of buyers are the ones who can usually afford the higher mark-ups and will be gone by 2024-5 when the next coolest cars are introduced. My career is in consumer behavior and pop-culture... and this is a standard life-cycle in industries and communities.

The problem predicting specifics is that there are so many variables (such as pandemics, wars, media influencers, the global economy, etc.) that can change how it plays out. but, given even a handful of new, must-have vehicles in the next couple of years, the competition for this car would *normally* diminish. In fact, history has shown that the first of a kind (such as the USA GR/Yaris) typically would hold higher value and desire over a more recent rendering of a classic (CTR). My toyota dealer said that the people with money are holding out for the circuit models of the GR. Altho, when the newer circuit versions come out, new discussions and comparisons with the CTR will happen -- which might actually reduce the image of the CTR (depending on GR reviews) or bring the CTR back to the forefront. The media is a big key to this.

Those are facts. I make no absolute predictions, but as long as the media influencers are gushing over this car, demand will stay high. Just watch for their attention to be distracted by a new toy, and that should impact CTR availability.

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