2023 Civic Type R Waitlist / Deposit / Reservations List - Check in here!

[ssheff55]

you guys definitely won't see 43 type r's, rick case down in south florida never even got that many fk8's lol

Good news for everyone if he’s 25 on the list and ends up with one in the next few years tho lol

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[tuhroo]

Good news for everyone if he’s 25 on the list and ends up with one in the next few years tho lol

well that list will definitely break down, a lot of people after one might not even get approved for financing with rates like how they are...so he might be lucky to get one from there, 25 is even a lot for 1 dealer over 4 years

 

[RoidRage]

well that list will definitely break down, a lot of people after one might not even get approved for financing with rates like how they are...so he might be lucky to get one from there, 25 is even a lot for 1 dealer over 4 years

If we do some fun quick math:
1) 1,071 Honda dealers in the USA
2) assume 50% won't get allocated any
3) 4 year production run
4) 25 per dealership that gets allocations all 4 years combined

1071 x 0.5 * 25 = 13,388

Do we believe believe the USA will get allocated roughly 13,500 to 14,000 units based on the information at hand? Or roughly 6-7 units annually for those 500ish dealers that will get one?

If we use what Canada is quote to be getting @ 550. 5x canada is roughly 2700, 10x Canada is 5550. This would mean the USA would get 25x Canada rumored numbers. I don't know if that makes sense based on history and FK8 proportions alone.

 

[Bonito]

My dealer confirmed no allocations yet and even shared a screenshot of his internal system showing “no orders yet” for the type r. I’m hoping it shows up any day now and since this is a first come first serve dealer I hope they’re true to their word and reach out to me right away, otherwise I’ll have to time things right.

Lemme know if you get any good bites in ATL. I've only had a firm answer from Curry Honda asking 15k over MSRP and they'd give me the first Type R they get.

 

[Boostlag]

If we do some fun quick math:
1) 1,071 Honda dealers in the USA
2) assume 50% won't get allocated any
3) 4 year production run
4) 25 per dealership that gets allocations all 4 years combined

1071 x 0.5 * 25 = 13,388

Do we believe believe the USA will get allocated roughly 13,500 to 14,000 units based on the information at hand? Or roughly 6-7 units annually for those 500ish dealers that will get one?

If we use what Canada is quote to be getting @ 550. 5x canada is roughly 2700, 10x Canada is 5550. This would mean the USA would get 25x Canada rumored numbers. I don't know if that makes sense based on history and FK8 proportions alone.

no way, min 30k lowest and I say 50k if there isn't any supply issues.

 

[ssheff55]

well that list will definitely break down, a lot of people after one might not even get approved for financing with rates like how they are...so he might be lucky to get one from there, 25 is even a lot for 1 dealer over 4 years

That’s my point, 25 is a lot.

 

[RoidRage]

no way, min 30k lowest and I say 50k if there isn't any supply issues.

So you're saying 50X Canadian rumored allocations is.... a real estimate? I mean.... ok....

The population ratio is only 8.6:1 ...........

 

[Hicks2seven]

If we do some fun quick math:
1) 1,071 Honda dealers in the USA
2) assume 50% won't get allocated any
3) 4 year production run
4) 25 per dealership that gets allocations all 4 years combined

1071 x 0.5 * 25 = 13,388

Do we believe believe the USA will get allocated roughly 13,500 to 14,000 units based on the information at hand? Or roughly 6-7 units annually for those 500ish dealers that will get one?

If we use what Canada is quote to be getting @ 550. 5x canada is roughly 2700, 10x Canada is 5550. This would mean the USA would get 25x Canada rumored numbers. I don't know if that makes sense based on history and FK8 proportions alone.

I'm not sure where to locate the data, but I was told the US sold about 20K FK8's. If you remove Canada from the equation and assume Honda plans to make 60-70% FL5's in comparison to FK8's then those numbers shouldn't be that far off. However, I've not seen any concrete information that shows Honda plans to drop production volume by that much over the next 4 years (with the exception of the widely rumored Canadian drop off).

Yes, many dealers are saying GM's are telling them this car will be hard to get (and maybe that's the truth)....but couldn't that also be a scare tactic to help them drive up initial cost to the few of us who have been salivating over this car for a year? Does anybody really know for a fact that Honda plans to lower CTR production numbers even if they're able to overcome chip shortages and other production woes?

 

[RoidRage]

I'm not sure where to locate the data, but I was told the US sold about 20K FK8's. If you remove Canada from the equation and assume Honda plans to make 60-70% FL5's in comparison to FK8's then those numbers shouldn't be that far off. However, I've not seen any concrete information that shows Honda plans to drop production volume by that much over the next 4 years (with the exception of the widely rumored Canadian drop off).

Yes, many dealers are saying GM's are telling them this car will be hard to get (and maybe that's the truth)....but couldn't that also be a scare tactic to help them drive up initial cost to the few of us who have been salivating over this car for a year? Does anybody really know for a fact that Honda plans to lower CTR production numbers even if they're able to overcome chip shortages and other production woes?

That's not how global allocation forecasting works, everything is proportional to each other relative to geos.

USA has always been 10x-15x Canada. We are tied at the hip . Historical ratios are ALWAYS the main baseline factor to geo allocations relative to each other.

 

[RoidRage]

If the Canadian, UK and AUS rumors are all true (which are all saying the same thing) the USA won't be some magical outlier that will be 50x those regions.

However, the rumors COULLLLD be wrong and HONDA COULDDDD be rumormill BSING us all.

Again, I would love everyone to be able to get one. Odds ALL the logical geo rumors are ALL fake, wrong, BS... small imo.

 

[Hicks2seven]

That's not how global allocation forecasting works, everything is proportional to each other relative to geos.

USA has always been 10x-15x Canada. We are tied at the hip . Historical ratios are ALWAYS the main baseline factor to geo allocations relative to each other.

I won't debate that. But I do find it odd that the rumormill is churning a LOT heavier in Canada than in the US. A lot of these assumptions are coming from the speculation that Canada will only receive 550 or so allocations over 4 yrs....but how do we know that's any stronger than a dealer in the US being told to expect one per month?

Also, why is Canada being told they're going to have limited color options but that's never been conversed in the US. Some of these data points seem to be driving our forum conversations but also seem off to me.

 

[RoidRage]

I won't debate that. But I do find it odd that the rumormill is churning a LOT heavier in Canada than in the US. A lot of these assumptions are coming from the speculation that Canada will only receive 550 or so allocations over 4 yrs....but how do we know that's any stronger than a dealer in the US being told to expect one per month?

Also, why is Canada being told they're going to have limited color options but that's never been conversed in the US. Some of these data points seem to be driving our forum conversations but also seem off to me.

It's all relative to dealership size and volume. Think about it this way. If you only have 1 dealership to plan for vs. 1,000 would it be easily to forecast and plan for the 1 or the 1000? Honda can easily get out operational targets to smaller geos first. It's usually how it works. Japan first, other smaller regions next USA last cause of how larger u guys are. They can't fuck up the USA geo, smaller regions are less impactful. So finalizing and getting USA amounts out will always be slower.

Canadian GM's have already been given very very high level expectations. Nothing final, but a "expect XYZ units over ABC years.

Additionally, the 550 was just a "leak". Until better information comes out it is what I personally and relying on.

However, when u combine the Canadian rumors with UK and AUS the picture becomes more clear are all three geos wrong at this point?

 

[citrus]

Odds ALL the logical geo rumors are ALL fake, wrong, BS... small imo.

Not if the underlying assumptions were incorrect in the first place. Then the odds become very big. What are the chances that your "information" is good? You put a lot of weight on it.

 

[RoidRage]

Not if the underlying assumptions were incorrect in the first place. Then the odds become very big. What are the chances that your "information" is good? You put a lot of weight on it.

I have no idea if my information is good or not. But I defer to logic and cast a wide net to source information to generate a map per se.

Everyone that challenges the limited availability tends to rely on FK8 numbers as their source of truth vs. Most current "information".

I am by no way saying "my" information should be the reference. But again, just look at the current climate of the auto market, look at all of the news cycles provided regarding FL5 rumors.

I am by no way saying "my" information should be the reference. But again, just look at the current climate of the auto market, look at all of the news cycles provided regarding FL5 rumors.

Logic + news + math + historical ratios and metrics, usually lead to a pretty good assessment, IMO.

I just find it very hard to believe a calculated 15K allocation for the USA if every other region is "reporting" "limited availability for the FL5". Which is the better source of information? Pick and choose, your guess is as good as mine. I however prefer to have a pessimistic take on things, as it limits expectations. Better to be surprised positively then to be let down negatively.

 

[citrus]

But again, just look at the current climate of the auto market, look at all of the news cycles provided regarding FL5 rumors.

I see the climate of the market, but, beyond that, I only see speculation reflecting fear, anxiety, and hype.

Maybe I'm being foolish.

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